What are the current odds for Will China's next (fourth) aircraft carrier be nuclear-powered??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 78.7% as of October 25, 2026.

Will China's next (fourth) aircraft carrier be nuclear-powered?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 78.7%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 47 minutes ago

Lagging

Mar 13, 24, 1:20 PM UTCMar 20, 30, 3:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolves YES or NO when a Chinese government body disseminates information that makes this question clear.

We should not assume that this information will come any particular time, and it might be the case that it becomes an open secret, but resolution should still wait for official confirmation.
Would resolve NA if it became clear there will be no next aircraft carrier
Update 2025-12-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The creator will not bet on this market
If China is simultaneously working on both nuclear and non-nuclear carriers, the market resolves based on whichever carrier is the fourth to be commissioned