Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 92.5%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleFeb 24, 24, 10:17 PM UTCMar 1, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will North Korea control Vladivostok on Jan 1st 2031?
Manifold Markets[Metaculus] Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?
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PolymarketEuropean country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by which date?
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PolymarketRules
Resolves as YES if China controls Vladivostok on January 1st 2030
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
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- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will China control Vladivostok on Jan 1st 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 93% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will China control Vladivostok on Jan 1st 2030? resolve?
- Will China control Vladivostok on Jan 1st 2030? is scheduled to resolve on March 1, 2030.
- How is Will China control Vladivostok on Jan 1st 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves as YES if China controls Vladivostok on January 1st 2030