Will Elon Musk be worth more than $2 Trillion before Jan 1st, 2030?
One-OffBusiness & CorporateEquitiesMacro & Economy3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 62.5%
Forecasters
32
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleFeb 4, 26, 12:25 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurRules
Resolve based on Elon Musk's net worth as reported by Forbes and Bloomberg.
- If both of these sources agree that Elon Musk has a net worth of greater than $2 trillion on any single date then the market resolves YES, otherwise NO.
- https://www.forbes.com/profile/elon-musk/
- https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/
Open markets
Business & CorporatePOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $354.3K
- 24h Vol
- $354.2K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+4.0pt50%
- 65-89+27.0pt47.1%
- 90-114-2.4pt2.9%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA+1.0pt78.4%
- Apple+0.6pt13.7%
- Alphabet6.9%
+5 more outcomes
KALSHIWashington aerospace manufacturing employment average in 2026
- Above 80,000 jobs98%
- Above 81,000 jobs95%
- Above 82,000 jobs+3.0pt92%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
- 180-199-1.0pt18.2%
- 200-219-1.0pt18.2%
- 160-179+1.0pt14.1%
+23 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of September?
- NVIDIA+0.3pt98%
- Apple-0.2pt2%
- Alphabet0%
+6 more outcomes
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- California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
- Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
- Illinois nuclear electricity generation in 2026
- 3rd Largest Company end of September?
- Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- First to hit $1B FDV: ANSEM, CASHCAT, AI, or NET?
- Taco Bell same-store sales growth in Q3
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Elon Musk be worth more than $2 Trillion before Jan 1st, 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 63% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Elon Musk be worth more than $2 Trillion before Jan 1st, 2030? resolve?
- Will Elon Musk be worth more than $2 Trillion before Jan 1st, 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will Elon Musk be worth more than $2 Trillion before Jan 1st, 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolve based on Elon Musk's net worth as reported by Forbes and Bloomberg.