Will Elon Musk be worth more than $5 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2033?
Corporate ActionsOne-OffTechSpaceBusiness & Corporate6yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 82.7%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Feb 3, 26, 8:54 PM UTCJan 1, 33, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Elon Musk be worth more than $2 Trillion before Jan 1st, 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk be worth more than 2 Trillion Dollars before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia control Vladivostok on Jan 1st 2033?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia control Grozny on Jan 1st 2033?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill Anthropic have the largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Elon Musk's net worth exceeds $5 trillion on January 1st, 2033, as measured by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index or Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List.
- The resolution will use the official net worth figure published by either source on that date.
- If both sources differ, the market resolves YES only if both sources report a net worth above $5 trillion.
- As of January 2026, Musk's net worth is estimated between $690-852 billion, making him the world's richest person.
- His wealth is primarily driven by a $366 billion stake in SpaceX, valued at $800 billion, and significant holdings in Tesla and xAI.
