Will Elon Musk be worth more than $5 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2033?
Corporate ActionsOne-OffTechSpaceBusiness & Corporate6yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 76%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleFeb 3, 26, 8:54 PM UTCJan 1, 33, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketElon Musk net worth on December 31, 2026
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Elon Musk's net worth exceeds $5 trillion on January 1st, 2033, as measured by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index or Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List.
- The resolution will use the official net worth figure published by either source on that date.
- If both sources differ, the market resolves YES only if both sources report a net worth above $5 trillion.
- As of January 2026, Musk's net worth is estimated between $690-852 billion, making him the world's richest person.
- His wealth is primarily driven by a $366 billion stake in SpaceX, valued at $800 billion, and significant holdings in Tesla and xAI.
Open markets
Corporate ActionsPOLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-0.5pt86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $66.1K
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213K
- 24h Vol
- $45.2K
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027+4.0pt54%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.6pt60.2%
- SpaceX-4.5pt37.8%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- 1.5T++12.3pt77.7%
- 1.25T–1.5T-4.0pt7.8%
- 1T–1.25T-1.4pt5.8%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+6.0pt98%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+3.0pt98%
- Before Jan 1, 202795%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.6M
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
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- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)
- Oura IPO Closing Market Cap
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Elon Musk be worth more than $5 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2033??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 76% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Elon Musk be worth more than $5 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2033? resolve?
- Will Elon Musk be worth more than $5 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2033? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2033.
- How is Will Elon Musk be worth more than $5 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2033? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria