Will a company formed after 2020 be worth > 1 Trillion by 2030?
One-OffBusiness & CorporateEquitiesMacro & Economy3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 2:18 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Yes 96.1%
Yes 96.1%Forecasters
52
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 23, 24, 3:54 AM UTCJan 2, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves yes if there's a company formed after Jan 1 2020 that is worth more than 1 trillion US dollars before 2030.
- Can be anytime, doesn't have to be worth 1 trillion on jan 1 2030.
- Has to be either publicly traded or a company that has raised >10 billion in funding (to get a semi accurate value).
