[Metaculus] Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?
One-OffChinaGeopolitics3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 78.4%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 49 minutes ago
LaggingAug 27, 24, 3:23 AM UTCJan 2, 30, 12:00 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?
- Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/27415/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
- This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2030, any of events 1-3 occurs, and 4 also occurs.
- There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, including areas of the current territory ("free area" as of October 2020) of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data of the ROC.
- There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan.