Will China become more authoritarian in 2026?
Middle EastOne-OffRussia / UkraineChinaLatin America6moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 59.1%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleApr 11, 26, 4:54 PM UTCMar 31, 27, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketIran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?
PolymarketRules
This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if China's democracy score is lower in the next report (to be published in early 2027) compared to the last report.
- If the report is paywalled, I may resolve to a secondary source such as Wikipedia.
- If China's democracy score for 2026 is the same or higher, this question resolves NO.
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- 🇺🇸 @/cash/will-the-united-states-become-more-QNC56OL95y
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
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- September 18-6.0pt69%
- September 11-10.0pt61%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
- 24h Vol
- $423K
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+3.0pt79.2%
- Yes-3.0pt20.8%
- Total Vol
- $10.9M
- 24h Vol
- $285.8K
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+2.8pt57.6%
- Benjamin Netanyahu+1.0pt28.3%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.3pt49.6%
- October 31-1.0pt29.1%
- September 30-1.0pt12%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- Israel closes its airspace by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Al Nassr vs Abha
- Iran leadership change by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will China become more authoritarian in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 59% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will China become more authoritarian in 2026? resolve?
- Will China become more authoritarian in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2027.
- How is Will China become more authoritarian in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if China's democracy score is lower in the next report (to be published in early 2027) compared to the last report.