Will China become more authoritarian in 2026?
Middle EastOne-OffRussia / UkraineChinaLatin America5moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 9:37 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 59.1%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated yesterday
StaleApr 11, 26, 4:54 PM UTCMar 31, 27, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Venezuela become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill India become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill China become the #2 global art market in 2026?
PolymarketWill the world become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if China's democracy score is lower in the next report (to be published in early 2027) compared to the last report.
- If the report is paywalled, I may resolve to a secondary source such as Wikipedia.
- If China's democracy score for 2026 is the same or higher, this question resolves NO.
- @/cash/will-the-world-become-more-authorit-2R20yhg9dh
- 🇺🇸 @/cash/will-the-us-become-more-authoritari
- 🇺🇸 @/cash/will-the-united-states-become-more-QNC56OL95y
