Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastMore Authoritarian 66.3%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
15
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleApr 11, 26, 4:56 PM UTCMar 31, 27, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the United States become more authoritarian in 2026?
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PolymarketRules
This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving based on whether the United States score in 2026 goes up (the named outcome), down (the named outcome), or stays flat (the named outcome) relative to its score in the previous year.
- If the official report is paywalled, I may resolve to a secondary source such as Wikipedia.
- @/cash/will-the-world-become-more-authorit-2R20yhg9dh
- 🇺🇸 @/cash/will-the-us-become-more-authoritari (this question)
- 🇺🇸 @/cash/will-the-united-states-become-more-QNC56OL95y
- 🇨🇳 @/cash/will-china-become-more-authoritaria-tQRh2Cq2Rq
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $829.4K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+1.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt3%
+39 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt47.5%
- October 31-1.0pt28.7%
- September 30-2.0pt13.1%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis+0.1pt4.8%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
- 24h Vol
- $343.1K
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.1pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.1pt14%
+48 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.4pt55.7%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.8%
- Naftali Bennett8.3%
+16 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the US become more authoritarian or more democratic in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices More Authoritarian at 66% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the US become more authoritarian or more democratic in 2026? resolve?
- Will the US become more authoritarian or more democratic in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2027.
- How is Will the US become more authoritarian or more democratic in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving based on whether the United States score in 2026 goes up (the named outcome), down (the named outcome), or stays flat (the named outcome) relative to its score in the previous year.