Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.
GeopoliticsOne-OffChinaAI2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95.4%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleFeb 24, 26, 9:51 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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FutuurRules
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- > Resolves YES if either of the following occurs by December 31, 2026:
- > AI Chip Sanctions Lifted: The US officially removes export controls on current-generation, high-performance AI chips (e.g., top-tier data center GPUs) to China.
- Minor exceptions for legacy chips do not count.
- > Co-Developed Frontier LLM: Major US and Chinese entities (state or private sector) formally announce a joint venture or partnership to co-develop a frontier Large Language Model.
- Informal, ad-hoc open-source contributions do not count.