Will expressive negative opinions on people with AI partners be considered hate speech by 2030?
EuropeOne-OffAISociety & Culture3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 78%
Forecasters
77
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 32 minutes ago
Dec 21, 23, 8:51 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.
Manifold MarketsWhich of these will Chancellor John Healey say in his Budget speech on 28 October 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Sir Keir Starmer say “bitter lesson” in relation to AI in a public speech before 2029?
Manifold MarketsBayeux Tapestry back in France by which date?
PolymarketWill Charles III remain the king for all of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill it be illegal to give a child an adult phone in 2036?
Manifold MarketsRules
Viliam suggests this, perhaps in jest: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WaDFCrd6KEwojLXgj/ai-43-functional-discoveries?commentId=tR5MrnfvmPvngYfzG
- Zvi: I wonder how reactions will change when people realize (or are reminded) that actually AI boyfriends are in higher demand than AI girlfriends, at least at current tech levels.
- Viliam: Expressive negative opinions on people with AI partners will be considered hate speech?
- Resolves to YES if such talk is officially considered 'hate speech' by at least one of (USA, EU, UK, Harvard University) OR is grounds for moderator action on at least one of (Twitter, Facebook, TikTok, YouTube).
- Resolves to NO otherwise.
- House rules apply, including on early resolution.