Will China also kidnap the president of Taiwan in 2026?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsGeopoliticsChinaLatin America2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 97.8%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJan 6, 26, 1:53 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsDouble Chance Saloon – bet YES to have two chances to win
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if China successfully kidnaps or captures Taiwan's president (currently Lai Ching-te) at any point during 2026.
- Resolution requires credible reporting from major international news sources confirming the capture.
- The market resolves NO if the year ends without such an event occurring.
- U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife on January 3, 2026, sparking discussion about whether China might follow suit with Taiwan.
- The operation sparked widespread discussion on Chinese social media, with the topic gaining some 440 million views on Weibo, and Chinese social media users are arguing that Beijing should adopt Trump's methods and apply them to Taiwan.
