Will Argentina start another war over the Falklands before April 2027?
GeopoliticsOne-OffLatin America5mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 88.8%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleApr 26, 26, 4:03 PM UTCMar 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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FutuurRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any time before April 26, 2027, the government of Argentina initiates, declares, or engages in an armed military conflict against the United Kingdom with the explicit objective of taking control of the Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas).
- An "armed military conflict" implies official military engagement between the armed forces of both nations.
- This market resolves to NO if no such conflict occurs before the specified date.
- The primary sources for resolution will be official announcements from the governments of the United Kingdom and Argentina, as well as reporting from reputable international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC).
- If the event occurs, the market will resolve based on confirmation from these sources.