Will the US recognize Argentine sovereignty over the Falklands before 2027?
US PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsLatin America2mo
FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probability
No 79%
No 79%Market quality
33 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1.3K
Low liquidityTraders
4
Comments
0
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
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Rules
This market resolves on whether the United States agrees to or definitively announces recognition of Argentina's sovereignty over the Falkland Islands before January 1, 2027, based on official White House and State Department communications.
- Statements that only acknowledge Argentina's claim or support negotiations do not count.
- If, before January 1, 2027 (ET), the United States agrees to or definitively announces official recognition of Argentina's sovereignty over the Falkland Islands, this market will resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) is official communications from the White House (whitehouse.gov) and the U.S. Department of State (state.gov); a definitive announcement made before the deadline counts even if recognition takes effect later.
- Qualifying forms include signing or ratifying a treaty, binding legislative approval, a formal commitment by the head of state or government, and official statements by authorized ministers, in press releases, in government proceedings or to international bodies, as well as phased-implementation announcements and multi-party agreements the United States signs.
- Not qualifying: statements that only acknowledge Argentina's claim, review U.S. policy, support negotiations, recognize de facto U.K. administration, oppose the U.K. without recognizing Argentina, or concern cooperation or resources; preliminary discussions, conditional agreements, opposition statements, leaks, think-tank recommendations, general aspirations, unapproved draft legislation and regional actions (unless specified).
