Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 76.5%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleMar 28, 24, 12:13 PM UTCJan 1, 40, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Please be warned the criteria for this are very subjective and may be controversial.
- I will use my own judgement to decide if AI has started a war.
- If an AI convinces someone to launch a missile or fire a gun and it starts a war this will resolve yes.
- AI spreading misinformation that starts a war will also resolve yes.
- If AI is only used as a tool in war and doesn’t start it it will resolve no.
- If there is no consensus in 2040 the close date will be extended.