UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?
1.4% (24h)One-OffPoliticsGeopoliticsLatin America5mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 4%+0.0%
Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$523.8
Liquidity
$21.2K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
3.1% / 5.8%
Spread
87.1%
Wide spread7d Change
+0.6%
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Apr 27, 26, 10:03 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes4%
Volume trend
$524Jul 218d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Kingdom formally announces the transfer of sovereignty over any area of the Falkland Islands to Argentina by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
- An official announcement from the government of the United Kingdom confirming that sovereignty of any part of the Falkland Islands has been or will be legally and officially transferred to Argentina is required.
- Negotiations, announcements or claims solely from Argentina, or other actions which do not definitively announce the transfer of sovereignty over the Falkland Islands will not qualify.
- A consensus of credible reporting that the United Kingdom and Argentina have agreed to a binding agreement or legal instrument resulting in a defined area of the Falkland Islands coming under the formal sovereignty of Argentina will also qualify, even if the effective date of the sovereignty transfer occurs after the market deadline.
- The primary resolution source will be official government statements from the United Kingdom and Argentina; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.