PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
No · —
Loading selected book…
—
Stored reference
No 98%
No 98%Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$17.1K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$13.5K
Bid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
—
Comments
8
7d Change
-2.6 pts
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Apr 27, 26, 10:03 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
Loading top holders
Market depth · No
Loading selected book…
—
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Argentina start another war over the Falklands before April 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US recognise Argentine sovereignty over the Falklands in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US recognize Argentine sovereignty over the Falklands?
KalshiWill the US recognize Argentine sovereignty over the Falklands before 2027?
FutuurWill Argentina successfully regain sovereignty over the Falklands by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsVenezuela de facto leader end of 2026?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Kingdom formally announces the transfer of sovereignty over any area of the Falkland Islands to Argentina by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
- An official announcement from the government of the United Kingdom confirming that sovereignty of any part of the Falkland Islands has been or will be legally and officially transferred to Argentina is required.
- Negotiations, announcements or claims solely from Argentina, or other actions which do not definitively announce the transfer of sovereignty over the Falkland Islands will not qualify.
- A consensus of credible reporting that the United Kingdom and Argentina have agreed to a binding agreement or legal instrument resulting in a defined area of the Falkland Islands coming under the formal sovereignty of Argentina will also qualify, even if the effective date of the sovereignty transfer occurs after the market deadline.
- The primary resolution source will be official government statements from the United Kingdom and Argentina; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.