KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 87%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$187
Low liquidityBid / Ask
5.0% / 6.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Sep 3, 26, 11:30 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US recognise Argentine sovereignty over the Falklands in 2026?
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PolymarketRules
If the US agrees to or announces recognition of Argentina's sovereignty over the Falkland Islands before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A definitive official announcement made before the deadline qualifies even if recognition takes effect later.
- A statement that only acknowledges Argentina's claim, reviews U.S. policy, supports negotiations, recognizes de facto U.K. administration, opposes the U.K. without recognizing Argentina, or concerns practical cooperation or resources does NOT qualify.
- An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following:
- Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies
- Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the US recognize Argentine sovereignty over the Falklands??
- Kalshi prices No at 87% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will the US recognize Argentine sovereignty over the Falklands? resolve?
- Will the US recognize Argentine sovereignty over the Falklands? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will the US recognize Argentine sovereignty over the Falklands? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the US agrees to or announces recognition of Argentina's sovereignty over the Falkland Islands before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.