Will Argentina successfully regain sovereignty over the Falklands by the end of 2027?
Latin AmericaOne-Off1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95.7%
Forecasters
27
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Jan 24, 24, 6:29 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Milei's new administration has reiterated his desire to regain the Falklands as Argentine possessions (spanish announcement here).
- Given he's outright ruled out the use of force (as he correctly observed that didn't go well last time), he's announced he intends to explore "all diplomatic channels."
- This market resolves YES if the Falklands have returned to Argentine possession by the close date, or if an official agreement has been ratified between Britain and Argentina about transferring sovereignty of the islands to Argentina on some fixed timeline.
- This remains a YES even if there are some caveats to that sovereignty, so long as the international community recognizes the islands as being Argentine territory.
- I reserve the right to adjudicate edge cases of this sort by my own sole opinion.
- It resolves NO if the Falklands remain a British possession at market close, or if some other country has taken them over.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Argentina successfully regain sovereignty over the Falklands by the end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 96% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will Argentina successfully regain sovereignty over the Falklands by the end of 2027? resolve?
- Will Argentina successfully regain sovereignty over the Falklands by the end of 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is Will Argentina successfully regain sovereignty over the Falklands by the end of 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Milei's new administration has reiterated his desire to regain the Falklands as Argentine possessions (spanish announcement here).