Will Argentina successfully regain sovereignty over the Falklands by the end of 2027?
Latin AmericaOne-Off1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 97.2%
No 97.2%Forecasters
27
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleJan 24, 24, 6:29 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Milei's new administration has reiterated his desire to regain the Falklands as Argentine possessions (spanish announcement here).
- Given he's outright ruled out the use of force (as he correctly observed that didn't go well last time), he's announced he intends to explore "all diplomatic channels."
- This market resolves YES if the Falklands have returned to Argentine possession by the close date, or if an official agreement has been ratified between Britain and Argentina about transferring sovereignty of the islands to Argentina on some fixed timeline.
- This remains a YES even if there are some caveats to that sovereignty, so long as the international community recognizes the islands as being Argentine territory.
- I reserve the right to adjudicate edge cases of this sort by my own sole opinion.
- It resolves NO if the Falklands remain a British possession at market close, or if some other country has taken them over.