If Argentina successfully invades the Falkland Islands before 2040, will the UK regain control of them within a year?
GeopoliticsOne-OffLatin America13yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 54.8%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 42 minutes ago
Sep 3, 23, 12:15 PM UTCJan 1, 40, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES on British media consensus that the UK retook the Falkland Islands within a year after Argentina mounted a successful invasion
- Resolves NO on British media consensus that the UK did not retake the Falkland Islands within a year after Argentina mounted a successful invasion, regardless of whether the UK mounted any such attempt.
- Resolves NA if neither of these are true by 2040, except in the case that Argentina successfully invaded in 2039, in which case the market will be extended until one year after Argentina took control of the islands (with a good faith attempt made by the market controller to determine an exact date)
