Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 68.1%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Jun 27, 26, 6:47 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if, before January 1, 2028, Apple officially announces, or credible financial/tech news organizations report, that Apple has contracted for, purchased, or begun commercially sourcing memory chips from a supplier headquartered in mainland China for use in commercially distributed Apple products.
- “Sourcing” means procuring chips intended for commercial mass production.
- Chips used solely for engineering validation, design validation, internal testing, prototypes, or other non-public products do not count.
- Memory chips include DRAM, NAND flash, HBM, or other semiconductor memory.
- Eligible suppliers include, but are not limited to, ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) and Yangtze Memory Technologies Corporation (YMTC).