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How many times will the Trump admin and/or NVIDIA flip-flop on giving NVIDIA chips to China before 2028? (fun)

TechOne-OffUS Politics China1y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Data quality warningStale data

Data as of Jun 4, 2026, 7:04 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3

Current community forecast

10-15 31.4%

Leader of 5 outcomes

Forecasters

4

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 54 days ago

Stale

Jun 2, 26, 11:46 PMDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

10-1531%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

Both 'flips' and 'flops' are counted, so a flip to yes and then no counts as 2.

Will be pretty generous in judging what counts as a flip or flop.
This market is not super serious, resolution will be most likely delegated to chatgpt (whose current count is 13).

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Rules

Both 'flips' and 'flops' are counted, so a flip to yes and then no counts as 2.

Will be pretty generous in judging what counts as a flip or flop.
This market is not super serious, resolution will be most likely delegated to chatgpt (whose current count is 13).