Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastCyberattack ($1M+) 42.6%Leader of 15 outcomes
Forecasters
17
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleJul 17, 26, 6:07 AM UTCAug 17, 27, 6:07 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
I've seen a lot of concern about the release of Kimi K3, an open source model said to be comparable to Claude Mythos/Fable or GPT 5.6 Sol.
- Will these concerns be borne out?
- For the purposes of this market, "mass murder" includes biological or conventional terrorist attacks, including mass shootings, but not conventional military or genocide campaigns where Kimi is used in planning or targeting.
- I'll take a broad view of causation; any attack in which Kimi K3 (including a fine-tune, abliteration, or other modified version) is proven to have been used for planning or execution in any substantial form will be considered a "result", even if the information was available in other ways.
- To simplify resolution, if nobody presents compelling evidence for YES within 1 year, this market will resolve NO.