Will anything bad happen as a result of Kimi K3?

GeopoliticsOne-OffAI1y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

Cyberattack ($1M+) 47%

Leader of 15 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 19 minutes ago

Jul 17, 26, 6:07 AMAug 17, 27, 6:07 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Cyberattack ($1M+)47%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

I've seen a lot of concern about the release of Kimi K3, an open source model said to be comparable to Claude Mythos/Fable or GPT 5.6 Sol.

Will these concerns be borne out?
For the purposes of this market, "mass murder" includes biological or conventional terrorist attacks, including mass shootings, but not conventional military or genocide campaigns where Kimi is used in planning or targeting.
I'll take a broad view of causation; any attack in which Kimi K3 (including a fine-tune, abliteration, or other modified version) is proven to have been used for planning or execution in any substantial form will be considered a "result", even if the information was available in other ways.
To simplify resolution, if nobody presents compelling evidence for YES within 1 year, this market will resolve NO.

Volume trend

$421

Jul 177d of dataJul 28

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Rules

I've seen a lot of concern about the release of Kimi K3, an open source model said to be comparable to Claude Mythos/Fable or GPT 5.6 Sol.

Will these concerns be borne out?
For the purposes of this market, "mass murder" includes biological or conventional terrorist attacks, including mass shootings, but not conventional military or genocide campaigns where Kimi is used in planning or targeting.
I'll take a broad view of causation; any attack in which Kimi K3 (including a fine-tune, abliteration, or other modified version) is proven to have been used for planning or execution in any substantial form will be considered a "result", even if the information was available in other ways.
To simplify resolution, if nobody presents compelling evidence for YES within 1 year, this market will resolve NO.