What will happen as a result of the shooting of Renee Good in the next 2 Years?
One-OffUS PoliticsCrime & Justice1yManifold MarketsNo KYCCurrent community forecastThe ICE agent is fired 12.3%Leader of 14 outcomes
Forecasters
75
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 days ago
StaleJan 8, 26, 2:17 AMJan 10, 28, 2:16 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
The ICE agent is fired12%
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Update 2026-01-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will use subjective judgment to determine whether a future ICE civilian killing qualifies as being "as a result of" the prior ICE shooting in Minneapolis.
- Update 2026-01-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The answer about "medical leave, paid vacation, and required to attend a two-week training program" will be interpreted broadly as the ICE agent receiving a slap on the wrist, rather than requiring exact adherence to the specific details (e.g., exactly two weeks of training).
- Update 2026-01-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Border Patrol is not ICE - for this answer to resolve YES, the killing must be by an ICE agent specifically, not by Border Patrol or other federal agents.
- Update 2026-01-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "ICE kills another civilian" to resolve YES, the creator will use subjective judgment to determine causation.
- The creator considers that increased tensions between protestors/observers leading to more conflicts leading to someone getting shot would satisfy the "as a result of" requirement.