Will 5,000+ Gazans starve to death as a result of the current conflict?
GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle East1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85%
Forecasters
129
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMar 19, 24, 2:07 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Resolves Yes if at any point before market close a major international body such as the United Nations or the World Food Program asserts that 5,000 or more Gazans have starved to death for reasons directly caused by the current phase of the Israel/Hamas conflict that escalated on October 7th, 2023.
- For a bigger range:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/Panfilo/how-many-gazans-will-starve-to-deat)Update 2025-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the ceasefire extends past a month and the current conflict appears to have ended, the market will be closed to trading but will not resolve immediately.
- Resolution will be delayed until malnutrition death totals have been updated to the standards of sources like CNN and Wikipedia.
- Update 2025-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has divested from this market and will remain neutral regarding when to stop counting deaths if the situation becomes ambiguous.