Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 81.3%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleAug 22, 23, 5:47 AM UTCJan 1, 31, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
PolymarketWill US withdraw from NATO by which date?
PolymarketRules
Any member currently in the G20 qualifies, including the EU itself but not any EU countries that don't have independent membership.
- YES if any member does any of the following:
- ceases to exist
- becomes a government in exile, losing actual control over territory
- is annexed by another nation or entity and loses sovereign status
- minor name changes
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.0pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26M
- 24h Vol
- $717.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt49.6%
- October 31-2.0pt29.1%
- September 30-4.0pt12%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-21.5pt47%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $65M
- 24h Vol
- $116.9K
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- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will any G20 member government collapse by end 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 81% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will any G20 member government collapse by end 2030? resolve?
- Will any G20 member government collapse by end 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is Will any G20 member government collapse by end 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Any member currently in the G20 qualifies, including the EU itself but not any EU countries that don't have independent membership.