Current community forecast
Yes 51.9%
Forecasters
39
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJan 1, 26, 6:13 PM UTCDec 17, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK Leader before 1st March 2027?
Manifold MarketsNigel Farage announces departure as Reform UK leader?
KalshiNigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
PolymarketWill Reform win the next UK election?
Manifold MarketsWill Nigel Farage lead the Reform UK party into the next General Election?
Manifold MarketsHolborn and St Pancras by-election: Reform UK vote percent
KalshiRules
Reform have been leading in the polls since April 2025.
- However, they are a relatively new party whose main attraction is a single, controversial figure.
- How unstable is the party, and its lead in the polls?
- Resolves YES if Reform UK falls and then stays below 20% in the Politico Poll of Polls for a period of 14 consecutive days, all of which must fall within 2026 (i.e. the streak cannot start after 17th December).
- Otherwise resolves NO on 17th December.
- This requires polling <20% i.e. not <=20%
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+2.5pt38.4%
- Édouard Philippe+1.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $130.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.4M
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro+8.2pt54%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-9.0pt44%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt2%
+16 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.4%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.3%
- Gavin Newsom14.3%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $214.8M
- 24h Vol
- $1M
KALSHIMaine Senate winner?
- Troy Jackson67.3%
- Susan Collins32.7%
- Total Vol
- $5.3M
- 24h Vol
- $588.1K
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.0pt85.2%
- Republican Party-1.0pt14.8%
- Total Vol
- $29.6M
- 24h Vol
- $446.8K
KALSHIOhio Senate winner?
- Sherrod Brown-2.0pt51.5%
- Jon Husted+1.0pt48.5%
- Total Vol
- $3.1M
- 24h Vol
- $416.5K
- Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- Iowa Senate winner?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Texas Senate winner?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- TX-15 House winner?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Putin out as President of Russia by which date?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Reform UK polling collapse in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 52% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will Reform UK polling collapse in 2026? resolve?
- Will Reform UK polling collapse in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 17, 2026.
- How is Will Reform UK polling collapse in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Reform have been leading in the polls since April 2025.