Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 72.6%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 38 minutes ago
Sep 4, 26, 8:14 AM UTCFeb 28, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
PolymarketWill Nigel Farage become leader of the Conservative Party by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Nigel Farage face a second Clacton byelection in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Nigel Farage lead the Reform UK party into the next General Election?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the next permanent leader of Reform UK (after Nigel Farage)?
Manifold MarketsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
PolymarketRules
Reform have been exposed accepting foreign donations by an undercover investigation provided to Channel 4.
- This is while a Parliamentary investigation is ongoing into a £5 million donate Farage received.
- This market asks: does Farage leave his post before 1st March 2027? Resolves YES if there is a statement from either Farage himself or from Reform UK that he will not be holding the post of leader.
- He does not have to leave Reform UK or resign as an MP for a YES resolution to be triggered, this is solely about his position as leader of the political party.
