Current community forecast
Other 27.5%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
15
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleMar 11, 25, 7:38 PM UTCJan 1, 40, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK Leader before 1st March 2027?
Manifold MarketsNigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
PolymarketWill Nigel Farage lead the Reform UK party into the next General Election?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the leader of Reform UK going into the next UK general election?
Manifold MarketsNigel Farage Exit Date
SmarketsHolborn and St Pancras by-election: Reform UK vote percent
KalshiRules
Reform UK is a right-wing political party in the United Kingdom.
- Founded as the Brexit Party in 2018, its current leader is Nigel Farage, who was previously the leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP).
- At the 2024 UK general election, the party won 5 out of 650 constituencies in the House of Commons.
- This market resolves to the next permanent leader of the party, following Nigel Farage.
- Interim leaders do not count.
- This market will not resolve to Farage, even if he is replaced by an interim leader and then comes back as a permanent leader.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will be the next permanent leader of Reform UK (after Nigel Farage)??
- Manifold Markets prices Other at 28% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who will be the next permanent leader of Reform UK (after Nigel Farage)? resolve?
- Who will be the next permanent leader of Reform UK (after Nigel Farage)? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2040.
- How is Who will be the next permanent leader of Reform UK (after Nigel Farage)? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Reform UK is a right-wing political party in the United Kingdom.