Current community forecast
Other 27.5%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
15
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleMar 11, 25, 7:38 PM UTCJan 1, 40, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Nigel Farage lead the Reform UK party into the next General Election?
Manifold MarketsNigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
PolymarketNigel Farage out as Reform UK Leader before 1st March 2027?
Manifold MarketsNigel Farage becomes UK Prime Minister before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill Nigel Farage be alive for the next UK general election?
Manifold MarketsWill the SCOTUS hear a case about AI and copyright law before 2027?
KalshiRules
Reform UK is a right-wing political party in the United Kingdom.
- Founded as the Brexit Party in 2018, its current leader is Nigel Farage, who was previously the leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP).
- At the 2024 UK general election, the party won 5 out of 650 constituencies in the House of Commons.
- This market resolves to the next permanent leader of the party, following Nigel Farage.
- Interim leaders do not count.
- This market will not resolve to Farage, even if he is replaced by an interim leader and then comes back as a permanent leader.