Will Nigel Farage lead the Reform UK party into the next General Election?
Corporate ActionsPoliticsOne-OffElection3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 70.2%
Forecasters
45
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJan 5, 25, 3:07 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolves YES if Wikipedia and/or Reform’s official website list Nigel Farage as party leader on polling day of the next UK general election after July 2024.
- Resolves NO if there is no Reform UK party candidate standing due to merger or lack of candidates.
- If Reform UK rebrand but otherwise remain relatively unchanged in terms of MPs and membership then this will resolve based on the new party name.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Nigel Farage lead the Reform UK party into the next General Election??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 70% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Nigel Farage lead the Reform UK party into the next General Election? resolve?
- Will Nigel Farage lead the Reform UK party into the next General Election? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will Nigel Farage lead the Reform UK party into the next General Election? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if Wikipedia and/or Reform’s official website list Nigel Farage as party leader on polling day of the next UK general election after July 2024.