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Data as of Oct 24, 2026, 4:35 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
No 82.4%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleSep 18, 25, 4:13 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Nigel Farage lead the Reform UK party into the next General Election?
Manifold MarketsIn the next UK general election, Will Reform UK and Restore Britain be top 2 in any seat?
Manifold MarketsWill Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by which date?
PolymarketWill The Startup Party get more seats in Parliament after the next general election than Reform UK will?
Manifold MarketsWill Reform win the next UK election?
Manifold MarketsNigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
PolymarketRules
For a party to be in power, the party must either control the executive branch or be part of a ruling coalition in the legislature.
- If a party is renamed or combines with another, that new party counts as well.