Current community forecast
No 97.6%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Jul 21, 24, 1:09 PM UTCAug 16, 29, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Reform win the next UK election?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk donate at least £10 million to Reform UK before the next general election?
Manifold MarketsWill Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?
Manifold MarketsWhat Conservative/Reform UK cross-pollination will occur by the next UK general election?
Manifold MarketsCalifornia Recall Election Reform Proposition
PolymarketNigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
PolymarketRules
When and if the actual name of The Startup Party is announced, I will edit this market to reflect that.
- For information about The Startup Party, see https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/4-the-startup-party-time-to-build.
- I will use my judgement to identify The Startup Party.
