Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?
Corporate ActionsPoliticsOne-OffElectionEurope2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 94.8%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 53 minutes ago
LaggingJan 3, 25, 1:57 PM UTCAug 15, 29, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
(Description generated with AI using manifolds new feature)
- Background Reform UK, formerly known as the Brexit Party, has recently surpassed the Conservative Party in membership numbers.
- Led by Nigel Farage, Reform UK has explicitly stated its intention to supplant rather than merge with the Conservative Party.
- There are significant ideological differences between the two parties, with Conservative members viewing Reform UK as substantially more right-wing.
- Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if Reform UK and the Conservative Party officially merge into a single political party before August 15, 2029.
- The merger must be formally announced and approved by both parties' leadership.