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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Pierre Poilievre out as Conservative Party leader?
Pierre Poilievre out as Conservative Party leader?

Pierre Poilievre out as Conservative Party leader?

One-OffPoliticsElectionEurope6mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 14%
Market quality

24 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0

Liquidity

$40.3

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

9.9% / 20.0%

Spread

102.0%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 5 minutes ago

Jan 3, 26, 3:00 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes14%

Rules

If Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party has resigned or otherwise left their position as leader of their party, or announced that they will do so before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The market resolves to Yes if the party leader resigns, is removed, or announces they will resign from party leadership.
  • An announcement of future resignation counts for resolution even before it takes effect.
  • This includes voluntary resignation, losing a leadership election, being ousted by the party, or any other mechanism that ends their party leadership.
  • Death triggers special settlement at last traded prices.
  • Temporarily stepping aside or taking leave while remaining leader does not qualify.

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Rules

If Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party has resigned or otherwise left their position as leader of their party, or announced that they will do so before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The market resolves to Yes if the party leader resigns, is removed, or announces they will resign from party leadership.
  • An announcement of future resignation counts for resolution even before it takes effect.
  • This includes voluntary resignation, losing a leadership election, being ousted by the party, or any other mechanism that ends their party leadership.
  • Death triggers special settlement at last traded prices.
  • Temporarily stepping aside or taking leave while remaining leader does not qualify.