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Data as of Oct 27, 2026, 1:49 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
Before 2028 · —
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Stored price
Before 2028 45%
Before 2028 45%Market quality
33 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$3.5K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
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Before 2028Spread
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Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 3, 26, 3:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before 2028
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will succeed Pierre Poilievre as the next leader of the Conservative Party of Canada?
Manifold MarketsPierre Polievre out as Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada by end of year
Manifold MarketsWill an Italian conservative party remain in office until 2027 ?
Manifold MarketsWill Nigel Farage become leader of the Conservative Party by 2027?
Manifold MarketsZack Polanski out as Green Party Leader by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Zack Polanski leave as Green Party leader?
KalshiRules
If Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party has resigned or otherwise left their position as leader of their party, or announced that they will do so before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The New York Timesthe Associated PressReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCBloomberg NewsNBC
- The market resolves to Yes if the party leader resigns, is removed, or announces they will resign from party leadership. An announcement of future resignation counts for resolution even before it takes effect. This includes voluntary resignation, losing a leadership election, being ousted by the party, or any other mechanism that ends their party leadership. Death triggers special settlement at last traded prices. Temporarily stepping aside or taking leave while remaining leader does not qualify. The market is about party leadership positions, not government positions - a leader can resign from government while remaining party leader or vice versa.
Rules for each outcome
- Before 2028
- If Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party has resigned or otherwise left their position as leader of their party, or announced that they will do so before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2027
- If Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party has resigned or otherwise left their position as leader of their party, or announced that they will do so before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.