KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 86%
Market quality
53 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$50
Liquidity
$3.5K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
9.2% / 14.0%
Spread
4.8 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jan 3, 26, 3:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Pierre Polievre out as Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada by end of year
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KalshiRules
If Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party has resigned or otherwise left their position as leader of their party, or announced that they will do so before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The New York Timesthe Associated PressReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBC
- The market resolves to Yes if the party leader resigns, is removed, or announces they will resign from party leadership.
- An announcement of future resignation counts for resolution even before it takes effect.
- This includes voluntary resignation, losing a leadership election, being ousted by the party, or any other mechanism that ends their party leadership.
- Death triggers special settlement at last traded prices.
- Temporarily stepping aside or taking leave while remaining leader does not qualify.
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Pierre Poilievre out as Conservative Party leader??
- Kalshi prices No at 86% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Pierre Poilievre out as Conservative Party leader? resolve?
- Pierre Poilievre out as Conservative Party leader? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Pierre Poilievre out as Conservative Party leader? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party has resigned or otherwise left their position as leader of their party, or announced that they will do so before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.