Current community forecast
No 90.1%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 21 hours ago
StaleJan 18, 26, 8:26 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will succeed Pierre Poilievre as the next leader of the Conservative Party of Canada?
Manifold MarketsWill Nigel Farage become leader of the Conservative Party by 2027?
Manifold MarketsPierre Poilievre out as Conservative Party leader?
KalshiWill an Italian conservative party remain in office until 2027 ?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia?
KalshiWill the next elected leader of the Conservative Party be their leader by the time the next general election is held?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if Pierre Poilievre is no longer the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada by December 31, 2026.
- This includes removal via the mandatory leadership review scheduled for late January 2026 in Calgary, or any subsequent leadership change during the year.
- The Conservative Party has adopted the Reform Act, which allows the leader to be removed by a vote of the majority of caucus, in addition to the party membership review process.
- The market resolves NO if Poilievre remains leader through the end of 2026.
- Poilievre has served as leader of the Conservative Party and leader of the Official Opposition since 2022.
