Current community forecast
One or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK 100%Leader of 10 outcomes
One or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK 100%Forecasters
33
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJul 12, 24, 5:20 PM UTCJun 30, 29, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge? Will there be many defections from one to the other? Will they form an electoral pact in the next election?
- Please feel free to request additional answers to be added.
- I've decided to keep control over adding answers so I can make sure they're worded in a way that is either unambiguous or that I am happy to arbitrate on, but I'm very open to suggestions.
- I'm inclined not to add lots of options for individual Conservative MPs defecting to Reform UK just because there's so many of them.
- Maybe a separate market for that?
- For the ones about defections, they need to cross from one party to the other.