Current community forecast
One or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK 100%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
33
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJul 12, 24, 5:20 PM UTCJun 30, 29, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
100%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?
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KalshiRules
Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge? Will there be many defections from one to the other? Will they form an electoral pact in the next election?
- Please feel free to request additional answers to be added.
- I've decided to keep control over adding answers so I can make sure they're worded in a way that is either unambiguous or that I am happy to arbitrate on, but I'm very open to suggestions.
- I'm inclined not to add lots of options for individual Conservative MPs defecting to Reform UK just because there's so many of them.
- Maybe a separate market for that?
- For the ones about defections, they need to cross from one party to the other.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What Conservative/Reform UK cross-pollination will occur by the next UK general election??
- Manifold Markets prices One or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK at 100% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does What Conservative/Reform UK cross-pollination will occur by the next UK general election? resolve?
- What Conservative/Reform UK cross-pollination will occur by the next UK general election? is scheduled to resolve on June 30, 2029.
- How is What Conservative/Reform UK cross-pollination will occur by the next UK general election? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge? Will there be many defections from one to the other? Will they form an electoral pact in the next election?