KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityLabour party 37%Leader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$59
Liquidity
$98.9K
High liquidityBid / Ask
1.8% / 7.6%
Spread
5.8 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Feb 16, 26, 3:00 PMAug 31, 29, 2:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Restore Britain party2%
Compare venues· Labour party
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Medium | 37% | — | $59 | $98.9K | 10 minutes ago | |
 Manifold Markets85% match · verified | — | 43% | — | — | — | 10 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
Which party will the Prime Minister after the next UK general election be from?
2y
+1.1pt43%
-1.9pt35.1%
+0.6pt13.7%
+3 more outcomes
Community forecast55 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
If the Your Party party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If two parties tie in seat count, then the party with the highest percentage of the vote will resolve to Yes and the others will resolve to No.
- If the Conservative party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Labour party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Reform party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Liberal Democratic party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$59Jul 225d of dataJul 28
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If the Your Party party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If two parties tie in seat count, then the party with the highest percentage of the vote will resolve to Yes and the others will resolve to No.
- If the Conservative party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Labour party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Reform party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Liberal Democratic party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes.