Current community forecast
Labour 41.3%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
56
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-0.4 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
May 5, 25, 12:18 AM UTCJan 2, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What party will the Prime Minister of the UK be from at the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsHow many people will serve as Prime Minister of the UK before 2029?
KalshiWhich party will the Prime Minister of the UK be from on January 1st 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhat party will the Prime Minister of the UK be from at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsParty of Next Prime Minister of Romania?
PolymarketWho will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?
KalshiRules
Resolves at the party that the first prime minister elected after the next general election is from.
- Update 2026-03-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If a hung parliament results in no government being formed and a snap election is called without any government (including a minority government) forming in the meantime, the market will resolve based on the PM after that subsequent election.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.3pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.7pt15%
+48 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3B
- 24h Vol
- $2.4M
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio+0.3pt16%
- Ron DeSantis-0.1pt3%
+39 more outcomes
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Nicolás Maduro-32.1pt53.6%
- Delcy Rodríguez+31.5pt45.4%
- No Head of State-0.3pt1%
+13 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.5pt90.1%
- Republican Party-1.3pt9.9%
- Total Vol
- $33.5M
- 24h Vol
- $713.5K
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt94%
- Yes-2.0pt6%
- Total Vol
- $22.5M
- 24h Vol
- $562K
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.7%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.7%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.5%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $221.6M
- 24h Vol
- $464.3K
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- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
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- Brazil Presidential Election
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which party will the Prime Minister after the next UK general election be from??
- Manifold Markets prices Labour at 41% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Which party will the Prime Minister after the next UK general election be from? resolve?
- Which party will the Prime Minister after the next UK general election be from? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2029.
- How is Which party will the Prime Minister after the next UK general election be from? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves at the party that the first prime minister elected after the next general election is from.
- Where else is Which party will the Prime Minister after the next UK general election be from? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi, Gemini.