KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Sep 8, 2026, 6:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Kemi Badenoch 26%Leader of 25 outcomes
Market quality
26 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$4
Low liquiditySpread
9.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Aug 20, 26, 1:00 AM UTCJan 8, 35, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which party will the Prime Minister after the next UK general election be from?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Keir Starmer be replaced as Prime Minister of the UK?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will the Prime Minister of the UK be from on January 1st 2030?
Manifold MarketsHow many people will serve as Prime Minister of the UK before 2029?
KalshiPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
PolymarketNext Prime Minister of Sweden
PolymarketRules
If the named outcome formally holds the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Prime Minister's Office, 10 Downing Street
- The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded.
- For the purposes of this Contract, only a subject who holds the position in a permanent, confirmed, elected, or otherwise non-acting and non-temporary capacity—as formally designated by the body or organization at which the position is held—is treated as formally holding the position; assumption of the role solely in an acting, interim, transitional, provisional, caretaker, pro tempore, or otherwise temporary capacity does not, by itself, satisfy the Payout Criterion.
- Andy Burnham is the holder at Issuance.
- A former holder who returns after Issuance is not disqualified solely on the basis of that prior service.
- If a person not listed here is first to formally hold the office after Issuance, every market resolves NO.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK??
- Kalshi prices Kemi Badenoch at 26% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK? resolve?
- Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK? is scheduled to resolve on January 8, 2035.
- How is Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the named outcome formally holds the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.