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Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 8:15 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
No 61%
Forecasters
34
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleAug 14, 24, 12:04 AM UTCAug 15, 29, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which party will win the next UK general election?
KalshiWho will be the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK general election?
Manifold MarketsThe Labour Party will win the next UK election (2023/4) and then govern for more than 8 contiguous years
Manifold MarketsIf this person is the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK election after 2024, will the PM be Labour?
Manifold MarketsWill the Labour party be in office for more than 4 years before the next general election?
Manifold MarketsNZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?
PolymarketRules
Update 2025-11-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Labour is the junior partner in a coalition, the market will resolve N/A.
- Forms a government as the major party, OR
- Is the major partner in a coalition