Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:45 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Yes 60.4%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleAug 26, 25, 3:54 PM UTCJul 4, 29, 3:49 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will be the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK general election?
Manifold MarketsWill the Labour Party win the next UK general election?
Manifold MarketsIf this person is the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK election after 2024, will the PM be Labour?
Manifold MarketsIf this person is leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK general election, will the Economist endorse Labour?
Manifold MarketsWhere will 2026 rank among the highest U.S. domestic box office years on record?
PolymarketNZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?
PolymarketRules
Under UK law there is no fixed date for the next General Election (GE).
- However the law does state that the next GE must be held before 15th of August 2029.
- For the purposes of this question a full term will mean serving in government for more then 4 full years.
- Therefore if there is no GE before 4th of July 2028 then this question will resolve YES.
- The Labour party took office on early July 2024.
- It took office with a very low voter share and grown to become incredibly unpopular with student labour party groups disaffiliting from the party.
