Current implied probability
Yes 19%-0.1%
Market quality
89 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$194K
Liquidity
$38.8K
High liquidityBid / Ask
18.0% / 19.0%
Spread
5.6%
Moderate spread7d Change
+6.0%
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Jun 24, 26, 9:44 AMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes19%
Volume trend
$194.0kJul 36d of dataJul 8
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage ceases to be the Leader of Reform UK for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- An announcement of Nigel Farage’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
- The resolution source for this market will be information from Reform UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.