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Data as of Oct 23, 2026, 9:22 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
No 69.9%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleFeb 9, 25, 3:25 AM UTCAug 15, 29, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Nigel Farage be alive for the next UK general election?
Manifold MarketsWill Nigel Farage lead the Reform UK party into the next General Election?
Manifold MarketsNigel Farage becomes UK Prime Minister before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill Nigel Farage become leader of the Conservative Party by 2027?
Manifold MarketsNigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
PolymarketWhich party will win the next UK general election?
KalshiRules
Market background
- Nigel Farage is currently associated with Reform UK, a right-wing political party that has seen increasing popularity in recent polls.
- In February 2025, Reform UK became the most popular party in Britain according to YouGov polling data.
- The party secured over four million votes and won five seats in the 2024 UK General Election, marking one of its strongest parliamentary performances to date.
- This market exists to cover any theorised eventualities in which Farage leaves Reform UK, and joins or starts another party which then goes on to win.
- My previous market, Will Reform UK win the next UK election, does not track Farage himeself, rather the party.