Current community forecast
No 81.5%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 31 minutes ago
Feb 12, 25, 2:39 PM UTCAug 15, 29, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Elon Musk donate at least £10 million to Reform UK before the next general election?
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Manifold MarketsWill Andy Burnham be PM at the time the next UK general election is announced?
Manifold MarketsWill The Startup Party get more seats in Parliament after the next general election than Reform UK will?
Manifold MarketsNigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
PolymarketWhich party will win the next UK general election?
KalshiRules
Reform UK, formerly known as the Brexit Party, has shown increasing popularity in recent polls.
- In early February 2025, a YouGov poll placed Reform UK at 25%, ahead of both Labour (24%) and the Conservatives (21%).
- The party is particularly attracting former Conservative voters, with about 33% of past Conservative voters considering Reform UK.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve YES if both of the following conditions are met:
- Reform UK has the highest percentage in the final YouGov voting intention poll conducted before the next UK general election