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Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:45 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Yes 64%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleAug 2, 26, 6:08 PM UTCAug 15, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Conservative and Reform parties merge or closely cooperate before the end of the next election?
Manifold MarketsWill Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Reform win the next UK election?
Manifold MarketsWill The Startup Party get more seats in Parliament after the next general election than Reform UK will?
Manifold MarketsNigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
PolymarketWhich party will win the House in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Will the UK Restore and Reform parties merge or cooperate closely before the end of the next election?
- Criteria and examples:
- During the next election campaign, if parties withdraw candidates or selectively place candidates to support each other winning more votes, this resolves YES
- If there is a (semi-)formal agreement to support each others' activities in parliament during this cycle, resolves YES
- YES: A formal agreement is established to support each others actions or vote in the same way
- YES: The leadership announce an agreement to support each others actions or votes in the same way (the intention here is to avoid being hung up on having a 'signed piece of paper')
