Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 73.9%
Forecasters
149
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 20 hours ago
StaleAug 13, 24, 11:58 PM UTCAug 15, 29, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Reform win the next UK election?
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Manifold MarketsWill Reform be the official opposition after the next UK election?
Manifold MarketsWill The Startup Party get more seats in Parliament after the next general election than Reform UK will?
Manifold MarketsNigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
PolymarketNigel Farage announces departure as Reform UK leader?
KalshiRules
Win as in forms the next government.
- In the case of a coalition, if reform is the larger party in the coalition I will resolve yes, otherwise if they are the minor party in the coalition I will cancel the market and return funds.
- This seems fairest to me as even if they are in government I wouldn’t say they have technically “won” being a the smaller party of a coalition, and they haven’t really lost, either.
- List of my other reform related markets:
- https://manifold.markets/LukeShadwell/will-reform-win-less-than-50-seats
- https://manifold.markets/LukeShadwell/will-reform-uk-and-the-conservative