Current community forecast
Suella Braverman 100%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
20
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJan 14, 26, 11:11 AM UTCAug 14, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
100%
100%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Reform win the next UK election?
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES for any UK political figure who defects to Reform UK before the date of the next election.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from Reform UK and reporting in established media outlets (BBC, Telegraph, Guardian).
- Each answer resolves independently, multiple politicians can resolve YES.
- I've added some people who have been speculated in the past, feel free to add more as I'm sure more figures will be named in future.
- I kept the title vague: feel free to add any people who have at any time been elected to a position in the UK (Councillor, Mayor, PCC, MP, MSP, AM, MS), any sitting or previously sitting lords, or any high profile aides/political employees (Morgan McSweeney, Dominic Cummings types).
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which UK political figures will defect to Reform UK before the next election??
- Manifold Markets prices Suella Braverman at 100% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Which UK political figures will defect to Reform UK before the next election? resolve?
- Which UK political figures will defect to Reform UK before the next election? is scheduled to resolve on August 14, 2029.
- How is Which UK political figures will defect to Reform UK before the next election? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria