Current community forecast
Suella Braverman 100%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
21
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJan 14, 26, 11:11 AM UTCAug 14, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Reform win the next UK election?
Manifold MarketsWill Reform win the next UK election?
Manifold MarketsWill Reform be the official opposition after the next UK election?
Manifold MarketsWill The Startup Party get more seats in Parliament after the next general election than Reform UK will?
Manifold MarketsNigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
PolymarketUK election called by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES for any UK political figure who defects to Reform UK before the date of the next election.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from Reform UK and reporting in established media outlets (BBC, Telegraph, Guardian).
- Each answer resolves independently, multiple politicians can resolve YES.
- I've added some people who have been speculated in the past, feel free to add more as I'm sure more figures will be named in future.
- I kept the title vague: feel free to add any people who have at any time been elected to a position in the UK (Councillor, Mayor, PCC, MP, MSP, AM, MS), any sitting or previously sitting lords, or any high profile aides/political employees (Morgan McSweeney, Dominic Cummings types).
