KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before Jan 1, 2027 21%+1.0pt
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$9
Liquidity
$11.1K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
17.0% / 21.0%
Spread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Jul 7, 26, 4:37 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
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KalshiWill Nigel Farage become leader of the Conservative Party by 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
If Nigel Farage leaves as Leader of Reform UK the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Nigel FarageThe Wall Street JournalBloomberg NewsThe Washington Postthe Associated PressFox NewsReutersReform UKCNNthe New York TimesPolitico
- This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date.
- If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.
- Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.
- If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.
- For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Nigel Farage announces departure as Reform UK leader??
- Kalshi prices Before Jan 1, 2027 at 21% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Nigel Farage announces departure as Reform UK leader? resolve?
- Nigel Farage announces departure as Reform UK leader? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Nigel Farage announces departure as Reform UK leader? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Nigel Farage leaves as Leader of Reform UK the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.