KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before Jan 1, 2027 · —
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Stored price
Before Jan 1, 2027 9.5%
Before Jan 1, 2027 9.5%Market quality
48 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$68.1
Open interest
$11K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Before Jan 1, 2027Spread
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Market data
Updated 44 minutes ago
Jul 7, 26, 4:37 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Before Sep 1, 2026Lost
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Jan 1, 2027
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
PolymarketNigel Farage out as Reform UK Leader before 1st March 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Nigel Farage become leader of the Conservative Party by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Nigel Farage face a second Clacton byelection in 2026?
Manifold MarketsShawn Fain announces departure as UAW President?
KalshiMarco Rubio announces departure as Secretary of State?
KalshiRules
If Nigel Farage leaves as Leader of Reform UK before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Nigel FarageThe Wall Street JournalBloomberg NewsThe Washington Postthe Associated PressFox NewsReutersReform UKCNNthe New York TimesPolitico
- This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If Nigel Farage leaves as Leader of Reform UK before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Sep 1, 2026
- If Nigel Farage leaves as Leader of Reform UK before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.