Current implied probability
Before Jan 1, 2027 15%
Market quality
77 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$6.4K
Liquidity
$5.3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
22.0% / 23.0%
Spread
4.5%
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Jul 7, 26, 4:37 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Before Jan 1, 202715%
Volume trend
$6.4kJul 72d of dataJul 8
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If Nigel Farage leaves as Leader of Reform UK before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date.
- If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.
- Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.
- If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.
- If the role otherwise ceases to exist with no plausible successor, the contract may resolve to "No."