Current community forecast
No 94.9%
Forecasters
28
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 34 minutes ago
Jul 31, 26, 12:53 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Nigel Farage become leader of the Conservative Party by 2027?
Manifold MarketsNigel Farage out as Reform UK Leader before 1st March 2027?
Manifold MarketsIf Nigel Farage wins the Clacton by-election, will he be recalled anyway?
Manifold MarketsWill a party Nigel Farage is a member of win the next UK General Election?
Manifold MarketsNigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
PolymarketNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketRules
Nigel Farage was under investigation by the UK Parliament's Standards Commissioner before resigning as an MP to stand in the Clacton byelection on 13th August 2026.
- Should he be re-elected, the investigation will resume.
- Depending on the outcome of the investigation he may then face a second byelection.
- Resolves YES if Nigel Farage is a candidate in a second Clacton byelection between 13th August and 31st December 2026.
- Resolves NO if there is no second byelection, or if one does take place but Farage is not officially listed as a candidate.
