Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 24, 2026, 9:27 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Yes 58.6%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJul 7, 26, 2:17 PM UTCJul 7, 27, 2:05 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Nigel Farage face a second Clacton byelection in 2026?
Manifold MarketsNigel Farage becomes UK Prime Minister before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill Nigel Farage be alive for the next UK general election?
Manifold MarketsNigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by which date?
PolymarketWill a party Nigel Farage is a member of win the next UK General Election?
Manifold MarketsAnother Clacton by-election called in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve YES if Nigel Farage wins the upcoming Clacton by-election and a successful recall petition forces him to vacate the seat again before the next general election for the House of Commons.
- This market will resolve NO if Nigel Farage wins the upcoming Clacton by-election and he is not recalled before the next general election for the House of Commons.
- This market will be voided if Nigel Farage does not win the Clacton by-election.
- Clarifications
- The close date may be changed as necessary.
