PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityMarch 31 7%-2.0%Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$439.7
Liquidity
$28.2K
High liquidityBid / Ask
4.0% / 9.0%
Spread
125.0%
Wide spread7d Change
-9.0%
Market data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Jul 9, 26, 1:43 PMMar 31, 27, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
March 317%
Volume trend
$440Jul 919d of dataJul 27
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jordan Bardella leaves the National Rally by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- This includes leaving the National Rally, affiliating with any other political party, or renouncing National Rally and becoming an independent.
- An official announcement from Bardella stating that he is leaving National Rally will qualify, regardless of when the change takes effect.
- Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
- The primary resolution source will be an official announcement from Bardella or National Rally.