Current implied probability
Yes 81%+2.5pt
Market quality
56 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$6.3
Liquidity
$8.7K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
79.0% / 83.0%
Spread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
7
7d Change
-0.5 pts
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Jul 8, 26, 1:59 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
National Rally Group Seat Count after French Senate Election?
PolymarketNext President of the National Rally in 2026?
PolymarketLes Républicains Seat Count after French Senate Election?
PolymarketReform UK, French National Rally, and AfD all in power simultaneously this decade?
Manifold MarketsWill the French United Left primary be canceled?
KalshiWill another French PM be appointed by the end of 2026?
FutuurRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a political group (group politique) is officially formed in the French Senate that represents the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The political declaration forming a qualifying group must be published in the Official Journal (Journal Officiel) of France within the specified timeframe.
- A group will qualify as representing the RN if it satisfies at least one of the following: - Its official name includes "Rassemblement National" or a clear variant thereof; - Its political declaration published in the Journal Officiel explicitly identifies the group as representing the RN; - A majority of its full members are RN party members or were assigned an RN nuance politique by the French Ministry of the Interior at the election in which they won their seat; or - RN national leadership publicly recognizes the group as the party's group in the Senate, and this characterization is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting.
- A mixed group containing both RN and other senators qualifies only if it meets at least one of the criteria above.
- The administrative meeting of senators not appearing on the list of any group (RASNAG) will not qualify as a group for the purposes of this market.